Handicapping the Edgars

New York City crime-fiction fans and critics are all atwitter this week, as Edgar Award-related events kick into gear in their fair city. Sarah Weinman has posted a list of the highlights. Meanwhile, there are at least two different sets of prognostications making the blogosphere rounds, each purporting to know which books will pick up the top 2008 Edgars.

The first comes from German critic Bernd Kochanowski, author of the Internationale Krimis blog, and is hosted by Crime Always Pays. He predicts that either Blood of Paradise, by David Corbett (Mortalis), or Cruel Poetry, by Vicki Hendricks (Serpent’s Tail), will celebrate an Edgar win in the Best Paperback Original category; that Pyres, by Derek Nikitas (St. Martin’s Minotaur), will edge out In the Woods, by Tana French (Viking), for the Best First Novel by an American Author prize; and that Best Novel honors will probably go to Priest, by Ken Bruen (St. Martin’s Minotaur), with Michael Chabon’s The Yiddish Policemen’s Union, by Michael Chabon (HarperCollins), and Soul Patch, by Reed Farrel Coleman (Bleak House Books), being its toughest rivals.

Over at The Hungry Detective, blogger Danny Wagner gives the odds to Coleman’s Soul Patch in the Best Novel category; says the “safe bet” for Best First Novel by an American Author is French’s In the Woods; and agrees that Corbett’s Blood of Paradise stands the best chance of picking up Best Paperback Original honors. Wagner goes on to make predictions in other Edgar categories, as well.

I really ought to stay out this crystal-ball-gazing game. Really. But I have to say that were I to make any bets, I’d put dough down on The Yiddish Policemen’s Union for Best Novel and In the Woods for Best First Novel by an American Author. I only read three of the nominees for Best Paperback Original, so I’m not going to guess there.

Fortunately, I am not a betting man. It’s much easier to hold onto my money that way.